How We Calculate Company Risk Scores
Every company tracked on JobRisk.io receives a risk score from 0 to 100. This score represents the likelihood and severity of upcoming layoffs based on public data signals. Here's exactly how it works.
The Scoring Model
Our algorithm weighs five key signals, each contributing a different number of points to the final score:
WARN Act Filing (Last 90 Days)
+40 ptsThe strongest signal. Under federal law, companies with 100+ employees must file a WARN notice 60 days before mass layoffs. A recent filing is the clearest indicator of imminent job cuts.
Hiring Decline > 30% YoY
+20 ptsWhen a company's job posting volume drops more than 30% year-over-year, it signals a hiring freeze or contraction - often a precursor to layoffs.
Industry BLS Layoff Rate Above Median
+15 ptsBLS JOLTS data shows layoff rates by industry sector. When a company's industry has above-median layoff rates, all companies in that sector receive elevated risk.
Negative News Sentiment
+10 ptsPublic reporting of hiring freezes, reorganizations, or "efficiency" programs adds a sentiment signal to the score.
Positive Headcount Growth
-15 ptsCompanies actively growing their workforce receive a reduction in risk score. Growth signals stability.
Risk Tiers
Scores map to four tiers:
Example Calculation
Let's walk through a real example using Meta Platforms:
| Signal | Status | Points |
|---|---|---|
| WARN Act filing (last 90 days) | Yes - Feb 2026 (4,000 workers) | +40 |
| Hiring decline > 30% YoY | Yes - 42% decline | +20 |
| Industry layoff rate above median | Yes - Tech sector at 2.8% | +15 |
| Negative news sentiment | Moderate | +10 |
| Headcount growth | Negative (-8% YoY) | +0 |
| Total | 85 |
Result: 85 Critical
Data Sources
- WARN Act Filings - State-level public records mandated by federal law. Companies must file 60 days before mass layoffs affecting 100+ workers.
- BLS JOLTS - Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Monthly industry-level layoff and discharge rates.
- Hiring Velocity - Public job posting counts from major job boards, measured as year-over-year change.
- Workforce Analytics - Publicly available headcount estimates from SEC filings and company reports.
Update Frequency
- Daily: WARN Act filings are checked and ingested every morning at 6 AM UTC.
- Weekly: All company risk scores are fully recalculated every Sunday.
- Monthly: BLS JOLTS data is updated when new reports are published.
Frequently Asked Questions
What data sources do you use?
We use WARN Act filings (public state records), BLS JOLTS reports (layoffs & discharges by industry), company hiring velocity data, and publicly reported headcount changes.
How often are scores updated?
Company risk scores are recalculated weekly. WARN Act data is refreshed daily. BLS JOLTS data updates monthly when new reports are released.
Can a company's score improve?
Yes. If a company stops filing WARN notices, increases hiring, and their industry stabilizes, the score will decrease over time as negative signals age out of the 90-day window.
What does a critical score mean?
A critical score (76-100) means the company has multiple active risk signals: recent WARN filings, declining hiring, and/or an industry sector experiencing elevated layoff rates.
Is JobRisk.io affiliated with any company?
No. JobRisk.io is an independent service. We have no affiliation with any company we track. All data comes from public government sources.